Friday, January 13, 2006

Projecting a defeat for Ianno

DemocraticSPACE's Jan 12 projection predicts that Tony Ianno will lose to Olivia Chow by a 9% margin (43% NDP, 34% LIB).

Of course, it was a lot closer than that last time, so it may be a little early to be counting chickens. However, I think a lot of factors point to a defeat for Ianno:
  • the Conservative surge: there's no way local CPC rep Sam Goldstein can win, but I would bet that he'll be siphoning votes away from Ianno, rather than the NDP
  • the Klander racial slur, and the Chinese head tax issue, will hurt Ianno in the Chinatown polls
  • Ianno is finally being taken to task for his support of the rogue Toronto Port Authority and the much-hated Island Airport
  • Recent revelations about possible corruption at the Toronto Waterfront Revitalization Initiative have tied Ianno's riding association to the companies that received untendered contracts
  • NDP supporters who were bitterly disappointed by the extremely close loss in 2004 will be redoubling their efforts to elect Olivia Chow this time around


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